After decades of increasing peace and prosperity, the last few years feel like a social and geopolitical paradigm shift; a sociopath gets elected to the Whitehouse, a pandemic lames the world like never before, Pyongyang and Tehran go nuclear, a major war breaks out in mainland Europe and Berlin and Tokyo , historically brotherly cloaked in pacifist mantles, have stop humming their peace mantra’s.
A government official recently quipped: “I didn’t expect to wake up in 1939”. Now we are not necessarily heading for WW3. There is plenty of manoeuvring space to avoid that. But the wind certainly carries a strange tune, that causes people and leaders to throw caution in the wind. Leaders openly call for other leaders to be dislodged. The dragon contemplates a flirt with the bear. Oil reaches a boiling point.
On a humanitarian level, the air is rife with focus on wellbeing. The part of mankind, that is not directly impacted by war, famine or suppression, is seeking to rediscover themselves:” who am I, what do I really want out of life, am I really happy with the life I lead?”. Gordon Gekko is loosing talent left right centre; many of them heading for the new promised land of fintech, lots are pouring into Crypto. The whole thing can slowly be called a movement. I feel the urge for facial hair and a tambourine.
And this raises a few questions: “Are we really so unhappy, and why?”, “Is there really an new promised land?” and “Is the seasonality of (world) war and (-) peace really unavoidable?”. Let’s start peeling the onion and try to conclude what’s in the centre.
I think people these days are less happy and there are a few drivers:
ð Loss/virtualization of social communities – People migrate more, they work from home, they have extension virtual social networks. The traditional circle of friends for life that you meet up with frequently is a rarity. Knowing and befriending all the neighbours in your block (and baking a cake for them if you move into the community) is part of the history books. We join online social networks, be do the algorithms look you in the eye or tell you that you are wrong about something? Don’t think so. All of this leads to an increase sense of loneliness, despite all the noise around our heads.
ð Our world is too big – We see news from all over the world. Most of it bad. Lots of it prompting anger and frustration. Our brains can’t handle it and we dissociate and become selective in what we care about; our fellow countrymen, people who look the same as us, or pray the same. We tend to generalize and put blame easily on scapegoats. Algorithms enhance this effect, putting us into echo chambers, feeding the rage.
ð This leads to the rise of opportunistic leader; the pop up everywhere like mushrooms sensing that the tree is dying. They polarise things further. While mass manipulation seemed easier pre WW1, it is surprisingly easy to disseminate misinformation via social media to groups who don’t want to fact check and explore new views.
What can we do? Stop looking at the horizon for a while. Stop looking at your phone for an hour. Look at what is right in front of you, reach out and really connect with it. The music you hear, the noisy myna you see, the auntie that cuts your fruit. We don’t need to have an opinion on everything in the world all the time. Energy can be spent wiser.
There may be a promised land. Some call it Ikigai, some call it equanimity, some call it Lamborghini. Some bring lasting peace, some just a high insurance bill. As for the fintechs and crypto opportunities of the world? True enough those who took an early bet on Facebook or Google, were handsomely rewarded with a magical career ride and thick wallet. Possibly some, putting their hopes on fintech or crypto, may be equally fortunate. It is not just a matter of being at the right place but also being there at the right time. It is not much of a sure bet, but similarly some people play the lottery. The chance to dream of a better life keeps them happy for a while. But unless you are a genuine believer in what such new technology, these ventures will not be a sustainable career, nor will it keep you happy for long.
As for seasonality, it is baked into the very DNA of human society. Mankind pulls together under external pressure, drifts apart in good times. I am not anthropologist or ecologist, but I deduct that this is pre-programmed in our lizard brain as self-defence response.
Can we fight it? Not easy, but yes, we can (someone said that before, I believe?). We have developed institutions that prevent governments from giving in to opportunism and human instinct. We have these institutions fail in modern democracies in the last few years. We need to fix election procedures in the US and streamline emergency protocol in Europe. We can’t force the hand of villain states, but we can make their misbehaviour extremely painful, by cutting them off from globalization (Though some states like Russia are remarkable resilient to such measures).
The long term solution is to avoid countries from villainizing in the first place by keeping their place at the at the negotiation table and – where possible – at the banquet of global prosperity. Dialogue and prosperity keeps demagogues at bay.
We need level headed and experienced leaders right now. No guarantee that history won’t repeat itself. In the meanwhile what we “commoners” can do is build bridges, open our minds, stay away from polarizing thoughts and hope. It is in troubled times that hope inspires great music, – art and – fashion. That’s at least something to look forward to.
Original Article Posted on LinkedIn HERE.
